Heart Disease: Guessing the Risk
October 01, 2007
If you knew you had a 25% chance of having a heart attack in the next ten years, wouldn’t you do something about it? And if you knew your risk was less than 1%, wouldn’t you feel good?
For people who don’t have any signs of heart disease, guessing the risk might seem impossible. There’s no crystal ball to show who will or won’t develop heart disease. But we do have a way to estimate who’s at higher risk. It’s called the Framingham Risk Tool, and you can find it online at Discovery Health.
This calculator is based on a huge study of the population in Framingham, Massachusetts, where researchers have been tracking residents’ health since 1948. To use it, you’ll need to know your blood pressure and your cholesterol level, including your high density (HDL) cholesterol. (The calculator only works for people who don’t have diabetes or signs of heart disease, because those things independently raise your heart attack risk.) The calculator gives you a starting point, a number you can use to open up a discussion with your doctor. He or she will also want to know your family history of heart disease, your ethnic background, how much you exercise, how much you weigh, and how much alcohol you drink. These are all things that can influence your risk.
Once you’ve got your number, what do you do about it? Young, healthy people will usually have a risk of less than 1%. If that’s you, it’s likely that you need to focus on eating a healthy diet and getting plenty of exercise to protect your heart.
But what if it’s higher? When you have that conversation with your doctor, he or she will recommend ways to decrease your heart attack risk. Here are some of the things you can do:
- If you smoke, quit. Smoking a pack a day increases the risk of a heart attack by six times for women and three times for men.
- Treat high blood pressure. A normal blood pressure is below 120/80. It’s considered “high” if it’s 140/90 or above. Diet and exercise can help keep blood pressure down. Some people need medication, too.
- Control your cholesterol. A healthy cholesterol level is below 200mg/dL. Your LDL number (the “bad” cholesterol) should be under 130, and your HDL number (the “good” cholesterol) should be above 40. People who already have signs of heart disease need even lower LDL.
- Consider a daily aspirin. In people at elevated risk of a heart attack, aspirin can reduce that risk by about one third. If your ten-year risk is 6% or above, ask your doctor about taking a daily aspirin. Too often, patients don’t think aspirin is important since it is available over-the-counter, rather than prescription. It is one of the most effective therapies to treat heart disease as well as to prevent it, so ask your doctor if you should be on it.
Related Links:
The tool: http://discoveryhealthcme.discovery.com/aspirin/reference/resources/framingham.html
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