Understanding Risk
September 22, 2009
Every medical intervention has risks and benefits. As an internal medicine physician, it's my job to help manage risk for my patients. I keep an eye on your risk for a heart attack, the risk of medication side effects, even the risks of surgery. But over the years, I've learned that doctors and patients don't always understand risk the same way. Lots of patients only think of the benefits,whereas others only see risks. It's similar to the old adage about seeing a glass half empty or half full!
This doesn't mean you should assume that medical care is a game of chance. Far from it! We have a strong arsenal of knowledge and a wide range of treatments that can help keep you safe. But as a patient, you do need to understand that practicing medicine is actually a series of judgments about risk. The more you know about how doctors think about risk, the more you'll be able to participate in your care and ask smart questions about your health.
It's common for a doctor to tell a patient that his or her risk of a heart attack is high, or to say, "If you don't lose some weight, you'll end up with diabetes." But what do those statements really mean? It turns out that your doctor's assessment of risk might not be the same as yours. Researchers have shown that different people can have very different ideas about what words like "rare" and "common" mean. Interpretations can even depend on what you're discussing. Before you make a decision based on something your doctor says about risk, make sure you're both on the same page.
Once your doctor has drawn a conclusion about your risk, he or she will usually use that information to help make decisions about treatment. One example of how this works is the use of risk calculators, which are worksheets or computer programs that tally up different types of health information and estimate your chance of having a problem like a heart attack, stroke, or cancer. The Framingham risk calculator is a common one. Based on age, gender, cholesterol levels, blood pressure, and smoking status, it estimates how likely you are to have a heart attack in the next 10 years. (You can try it yourself at Framingham Risk Calculator.) Doctors use the results to help us know when to start medication for high cholesterol, or prescribe aspirin to help prevent a heart attack. What we're really doing,though, is deciding at what point the benefits you'll gain from treatment are large enough to make a significant change in your risk -- and at what point benefits from treatment will likely outweigh any risks the treatment brings.
My patients often believe that if a doctor prescribes a drug, it must be perfectly safe to use. But, what does "safe" really mean? When the Food and Drug Administration considers approving a new drug, they're weighing risks and benefits, too. Each medication goes through three types of tests. Phase I studies are designed to see how the drug works in the body. They involve small groups of healthy volunteers. Phase II trials test the drug in people who have the illness it is supposed to treat, demonstrating that it works and establishing the correct dose. Phase III trials are usually much larger. They provide more evidence that the drug does what it's supposed to do, and they're also the main source of information about the drug's safety and side effects. With some drugs, Phase III trials show that there are hardly any side effects at all. With others, side effects may be troubling or even dangerous. Sometimes, most people who take the drug do well, but for some reason -- maybe genetics -- there are a few who can't tolerate the medication.
In all these situations, the FDA can still approve a drug, as long as it's more likely to help certain patients than to hurt them. So why doesn't your doctor explain all this when he or she writes you a prescription? Some doctors hesitate to tell you about risks because they don't want to scare you. Others aren't sure you’ll understand the numbers. Often, doctors are so rushed for time, they don't want to get into a math lesson! But it's important that you bring up questions you have about potential treatments.
Once you understand that risk is a normal part of medical practice, you'll be able to ask your doctor the important questions and get a sense of what's behind his or her recommendations. Here are some of the questions you might want to bring on your next visit to the doctor:
- What is the risk that an average person would develop this disease? How does my risk compare?
- How likely do you feel it is that this therapy will work for me?
- How often does this side effect happen? Were the people in the study you're describing similar to me?
With these answers, you can decide along with your physician whether a therapy is best for you.












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