Why Tropical Storm Gustav Could be a big Problem

Eric "SciGuy" Berger over at the Houston Chronicle is really good at keeping up with the latest in tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico. I think I would be too if I lived in Houston, a city itching to have its clock cleaned by a big storm raging out of the Gulf.

His latest post on TS Gustav is really interesting, highlighting the volatility that results whenever a tropical cyclone finds its way into the Gulf of Mexico.

The cause for concern is, briefly: when a storm passes over a particularly warm stretch of the Gulf, it can spin up in a big hurry, going from Category 1 to a 5 in the course of a day or two.

This was exactly what happened with Katrina, and then again with Rita, both in 2005. The storms passed over warm eddies of the Gulf Stream called the "Loop Current," and as Berger points out, a couple of oxbow-shaped loops are currently hanging around:

It's no guarantee that Gustav will find a loop current and get really evil in the coming days. Hurricanes are highly unpredictable, and as Berger mentions, Gulf temperatures are down from what they were when Katrina and Rita visited its waters in 2005.

Then again, there's no guarantee it won't, either. An infant Katrina wandered aimlessly in the Bahamas, much like Gustav is right now near Haiti.

Image: Naval Oceanographic office, via SciGuy

Comments

[houston]

man I live in Panama city so if we get hit here we are so skrewed

[rocket scientist(not)]

well, duh? no rocket science req'd; warmer waters are the mothers' milk (more like gasoline for the engine) of Hurricanes. TENTH'S of degrees (Farenheit) MATTER. Cloud Seeding (in the 1950's) was about reducing the temp. and causing additional rains & result was lowered winds (which do the most damage). Computers are useless as weather is unpredictable. Hurricanes are controlled by the regional high pressure areas around them as pinballs are controlled by flippers in the machine. Evacuating N.O. now (4 days in advance) is as brilliant as Tampa shutting down it's power grid a day before hurricane Charlie never even came close (in '04). Gustaf could (& might) just as easily head due west & cross both Yucatan & Mexico. Panic is what everybody loves, gotta have a crisis. My advice is stay tuned, be prepared, & don't freak out. Let's face it, NOBODY got TS Fay right, now did they? Hurricanes are (& always will be) UNpredictable.

[Bridget Jones]

Well, the folks down in New Orleans are 'gun-shy', so to speak. With the strike of Hurricane Katrina just three years ago, they are quite aware of what a hurricane can actually do to their city. It took many lives and flooded many homes. They don't want to stick around and chance things...better safe than sorry. That's our motto. I personally don't blame them for getting out of that big soup bowl they call home.

[kevin z]

Cloud Seeding (in the 1950's) was about reducing the temp. and causing additional rains & result was lowered winds (which do the most damage)

Actually, cloud seeding was about giving water vapour a central nucleus to cling onto and thus form a rain drop around. Something I think I learned from watching a Discovery Channel episode ;)

See wikipedia entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_seeding

[Ike Solem]

Historically, it's been very rare for hurricanes to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico - the big ones never did that before, and the reason is that the equatorial waters are warming up and migrating northward, which is due to the ocean absorbing heat from our greenhouse-amplified atmosphere.

It has to do with the Loop Current, which is a warm pool that builds up in the Gulf - only now, it is doing this to a greater extent than in the past, thanks to global warming.

On the other hand, global warming is also predicted to increase wind shear. If there were strong winds aloft, Gustav would be blown apart - but there are no strong winds aloft right now, unfortunately.

Hope for wind, in other words.

[mots]

So where are You? It's September 9........ Taking extended leave to write a book, i hope..............
i didn't know about the warm loops.... that makes sense.
And there's still no sun spots......... we could be in for a mini ice age........ and since i'm in Alaska, that would be bad news for us up here. This year was wetter and colder than recent years have been....
Well, hope You are doing ok.... i enjoy Your input.
Best!motsfo