Do Astronomers Believe in Aliens?

November 24, 2008

The scoop: Believing that intelligent extraterrestrial life -- aka aliens -- exist is one thing. Believing that they have visited Earth in our short time on the planet is another. Astronomer, author and blogger Phil Plait explains.

When I give public talks, I can almost guarantee that during the Q&A I'll get asked: Do I believe in aliens and UFOs?

My answer usually gets a laugh: "Yes, and no."

As far as aliens go, I suspect pretty strongly that there's life in space. We know of over 300 planets orbiting other stars, and we've only just started looking. In our Milky Way Galaxy alone there are probably literally billions of planets. Life on Earth got started pretty rapidly, relatively speaking, after the crust cooled and liquid water formed, so we know it's not tough for life to get its start... and it's entirely possible there is microbial life inside icy moons orbiting Jupiter and Saturn.

So thinking aliens exist has a pretty decent scientific basis. But them coming here is an entirely different beast.

There are tens of thousands of UFOs reported every year. That's one of the reasons a lot of people think aliens are visiting us: there's no way that there could be that many reports if some of them weren't real!

But that's bad reasoning. In fact, the vast majority of reported UFOs are mundane things in the sky. The planet Venus is incredibly bright; most people don't believe me when I point it out to them. They think it's a nearby airplane, or some other bright earthbound object.

Not only that, but if you're driving, it appears to follow you through the trees because it's so far away. If it's low to the horizon, turbulent air makes it flicker and change color. Does this sound familiar? How many UFO reports have you heard that say a huge object (people often mistake brightness for size) was following someone in their car, and it was rapidly changing color?

Yup. Venus.

Manmade satellites pass overhead several times an hour, and some brighten tremendously as a solar panel or mirrored surface catches the Sun. Meteors blaze across the sky, ice crystal refract sunlight and moonlight, atmospheric effects make a distant object appear distorted and weirdly-shaped. All of these have been mistaken for alien spacecraft.

So I know that most people misinterpret what they see. But there's something else too. If alien spaceships are really out there abducting us and playing chicken with our airplanes, then you'd expect that people who spend more time looking at the sky would see more of them. And who spends lots of time looking up?

Amateur astronomers. They are dedicated observers, out every night peering at the sky. If The Truth Is Out There, then amateur astronomers would be reporting far and away the vast majority of UFOs.

But they don't. Why not? Because they understand the sky! They know when a twinkling light is Venus, or a satellite, or a military flare, or a hot air balloon, and so they don't report it.

That, to me, is the killer argument that aliens aren't visiting us. If they were, the amateur astronomers would spot them.

Of course, you might say "But just because they don't see UFOs doesn't mean they aren't real. It just takes one to prove aliens are coming here!" That might be correct, but remember, we started off thinking they're coming here because so many UFOs are reported! Once you realize that the overwhelming majority of UFO cases are just everyday things, then that "it just takes one" argument gets a whole lot weaker.

But I'll surprise you, though: I agree. It really only does just take one. But that one better have good proof! Something better than a single eyewitness, a badly sketched object, a fuzzy photograph, or out-of-focus video (heck, with digital effects the way they are today, you can't even trust video that's crystal clear). It needs a sample of non-terrestrial metal. An actual alien. Some incontrovertible evidence that is impossible to deny.

But we never get that. Why not? I think it's because we're not being visited. When Klaatu comes and lands on the White House lawn, I'll be willing to change my mind. But until then, well, keep watching the skies. Learn what's up there, and what isn't. You might someday spot the genuine article.

But even if you don't, you get to discover what's really up there... and there's treasure aplenty in the sky to be had, even by us folks stuck here on planet Earth.

Phil Plait is an astronomer, lecturer and author who worked on the Hubble Space Telescope for 10 years. He is the creator of the Bad Astronomy blog and president of the James Randi Educational Foundation.

Article posted November 24, 2008.

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Comments

[Fermiparadox]

Amateur astronomers do not observe UFO's ..?
Here are some quotes from a summary of the "Report on a Survey of the Membership of the American Astronomical Society Concerning the UFO Phenomenon", by Peter Sturrock of Stanford University:

"Of 2,611 questionnaires mailed to members of the American Astronomical Society, 1,356 were returned, 34 anonymously. Only two members offered to waive anonymity. These facts and many comments confirm that the UFO problem is a sensitive issue for most scientists."
"The returns identified 62 respondents who had witnessed or obtained an instrumental record of an event which they could not identify and which they thought might be related to the UFO phenomenon."
"There were sixteen accounts of strange objects seen by day. Five were of small objects, seven were of disk-shaped objects, and four described other miscellaneous observations."

You need something better than a single eyewitness, a badly sketched object, a fuzzy photograph, or out-of-focus video? What about multiple witness cases, credible witnesses such as military personnel, pilots and police officers, photographic evidence, radar traces, video evidence, physical traces on the ground. A very recent case are the stunning video recordings made in Kumburgaz, Turkey and assessed by the TUBITAK National Observatory. The scientists of TUBITAK concluded that these recordings are genuine.

It's all there but you just need to be willing to do your homework.

This pile of evidence is completely consitent with aliens that simply study us without any motivation to make contact or to take over the Earth. This, in turn, is completely consistent with modern scientific viewpoints on the evolution of alien life and incommensurability. Fermi's paradox actually PREDICTS that they are here. For us humans it is simply too difficult to accept that they do not consider us interesting or advanced enough to attempt to make contact.

[resisfutal]

There is too much that we still don't know about outer space. People seeing ifos or a kid hoaxing it on the pc takes away from the real study. If you were a vasly more intelligent species would you even bother stopping to take a look at those stupid humans?, But I hear they go good on a cracker. Nanu Nanu

[flamey]

Venus is the best! Long live aptly-named Venus!!! I, personaly, like the article, althought I would like a yes/no answer. I believe in aliens, and I think that anyone who thinks we are the only life is quite vain. Do you honesty think we have the universe to ourselves? Of course, you are entitled to your opinion... I once thought I saw a UFO, it looked like a white spere with three legs. I was in a car and we were moving. I alerted the rest of the people in the car, and we(excepting the driver) watched it. As we moved, our point of view changed, and we found out that it was a blimp! The three "legs" were three flaps on it's tail! I was relieved, but slightly disappointed. (plz excuse my grammar&spelling)

[Cathy]

Hmmm.. it's kinda funny how pro-astronomers like you (if I may say) has the same thought of why there might be UFOs out there with me and my friends as kids! There are lots of planets, there are galaxies, lots of them! M-Virgo... etc... there must be other lives. Come on! =D

[Phil Anderson]

First of all, I find the way this article is written, and the broadness and generic question, leaves only room for a simple yes or no answer. With so many people who are witnessing UFOs, each case is different and must be analyzed one at a time and to simply say there are or are not UFOs is similar to asking whether or not ghosts exist with a simple yes or no answer. Considering each case is unique, it's impossible to say simply yes or no.

Let's look at other facts here. Astronaut's are even coming forward with information and photographs, along with videos that clearly show there are "Unidentified" objects flying around that do look very much like they are being piloted by intelligent life forms. I can show many cases alone now from NASA who are saying there are UFOs. Even Presidents have admitted to seeing UFOs. Considering all the evidence we have now, that is clearly not faked or hoaxed and the people who are beyond any question honest, I would only be able to conclude, that there are in fact UFOs based on each case I have seen by reputable witnesses, case by case. We only know that we don't know where they come from. I've seen UFOs myself, but only once up close and I know it was not something from this earth or a technology known by experts from our planet considering the speed at which it moved away, there is no technology from Earth that can move like that. None.....

I find this entire article too general and broad to make any sense anyway. Why would people who come forward knowing they will loose their credibility, jobs, or wait until they retire out of fear of loosing their jobs before they retire and pension along with that, come forward knowing what is at risk for them unless they were telling the truth.

I'm sorry to say but I hope there are better articles than this out there today. I hope to find one that asks something more like "Are there professionals who risk loosing everything by coming forward with a story about seeing UFOs do so?

We simply can't say that because some sightings are hoaxed that all sightings are hoaxed. There is no general yes or no answer to this type of loaded question without looking at every individual case and taking into account the person who is reporting the sighting. Does this make any sense?

[Jayant Patel]

Actually I think christianty is the first star-trek religion. Think of it, someone makes life here on earth in his own image? Could it be that aliens visited earth and planted their seed, human beings? That would account for why we humans are so much ahead intelligence-wise compared to the rest of the animals on this planet. In olden days, when explorers got off the boat, some natives mistook them for gods. Maybe we haven't progressed that much.

Science tells us that all life is made of star material. In fact everything that you see around you is also present all over the universe. So, i don't see how there can not be life in other areas of the galaxy.

Recently there was news of a light-bending machine that can make the vehicle "invisible". I am sure an advanced civilization has already figured this out, it would be easier to do this at night.

[johnny]

because life is on earth,and the universe is soooo large.life must be lots of other places. personaly,i think the universe is alive. as for visitors, good chance of it. some ancient beings could have solved the time and space thing a long time ago.as for humans, if were not smart enough to feed ourselves or stop killing each other, we may not live long enough to find out..

[VALDEMAR CABALLERO]

I LIKED THE ARTICLE VERY MUCH. AND I AGREE WITH THE AUTOR. IT IS A SHAME THAT WE DO NOT HAVE VERY REAL EVIDENCE. IT WOULD BE GREAT!!!!
LONG LIVE ALIENS!!!!

[Cmdr Robert C. Handel]

Greetings, posters. This is Commander Robert C. Handel of the President's Coucil For Maintaining UFO Secrecy.

In reviewing this comment section as part of my duties, I regret to inform that poster Alan Haggard has gotten far too close to The Truth About UFOs and remedial steps must be taken to silence him at all costs. Therefore, in order to paint his 'theories' as believerish gibberish, we have decided to take the one drastic action most likely to do the job - we shall let him speak.

That is all. Please return to your regular scheduled activities.

Sincerely,

Commander Robert C. Handel
MIG Section Chief (Men In Grey)
President's Council On Maintaining UFO Secrecy

[john davies]

I have always wanted to see an Alien flying craft but I also understand the need for real evidence rather than unthinking belief .I have seen many UFOs , one of which was the usual metalic disc .However this turned out to be a seagull hovering at an odd angle . I've also seen the lights in the sky back in the sixties , but I've never seen ET.Shucks .

[Stan]

Jens: comets, asteroids etc do not move across the sky like an aircraft, as near earth objects like satellites do. These close-by things are not sought after for 'discovery' by astronomers to my knowlege; we dont name space debris!

[Stan]

Jens, comets, asteroids etc do not move across the sky like an aircraft, satellite, or near-earth object! These things are not named, many of them may not even be 'tracked' or known.

[Sarah TX]

I used to think the Venus explanation was pretty week, until I was startled one night, as I was exiting my car, by a "large" (bright) light that seemed to swoop down through the sky as I stood up. As I fixed my eyes on the object, it was incredibly difficult for me to determine whether or not it was moving. It took me several minutes to realize that it was Venus, sitting rather low and bright just above the tree-line. If my father wasn't an amateur astronomer, I think I would have called it a UFO.

One thing that has struck me since I moved near an air force base is how much planes can look like those classic saucer-, cigar-, and triangle-shaped UFOs that people report. I have often seen C-5 landing across my view with the sun at my back, and the wings and tail-fin are almost invisible.

[Jens Fiederer]

@Stan:

As 'The fact that they "understand" the sky means simply that they would be more likely dismissive of sightings that have an alternate explanations.' goes, I completely disagree - the argument is very strong.

A good astronomer would be unlikely to dismiss a sighting until it can be attached to a man-made object (at which point it is no longer as interesting). Amateur astronauts LIVE for tagging some spot of light as a new asteroid or comet or whatever.

[D M]

Skeptics generally doesn't acknowledge their own bad reasoning. However, like an atheist assuming a theist definition of God, when it comes to aliens, we are almost always assuming the believer's concept of an alien presence. Just because you want to get to another planet in your own lifetime, doesn't mean that is how it has to be done. It has been said, using our current limitations in physics, that a civilization that doesn't destroy itself could expand throughout our galaxy in ~65 million years. The dinosaurs could have done it, if they lived... and considering the age of our galaxy, it is fairly reasonable that one of those "billions of planets" already did such an expansion. Sure it isn't aesthetically pleasing to our scifi inclinations, but there is a reasonable possibility that, relatively speaking, aliens have always been here.

[Stan]

I agree with most of what Phil says, although I think the 'Venus' theory is pretty overstated. Most sightings are probably manmade space objects, meteors, atmospheric phenomena, military aircraft etc.
Speaking for the Devil, the argument that amateur astronomers would make more observations is pretty weak IMO. The fact that they "understand" the sky means simply that they would be more likely dismissive of sightings that have an alternate explanations. For example, when i used to watch the sky as a kid I observed several space objects (lights) traveling though the sky (too distant to be aircraft). Since i assumed they were meteors, satellites or space debris, i certainly didnt report them! But that doesnt mean that they were what i assumed them to be!
From a logical standpoint, if assumed aliens were not looking to be stealth, then obviously we would have had the hard-fast evidence Phil mentions by now. Since we dont, then obviously they would be interested in remaining undetected, and any "sighting" would be an extremely rare, fluke event, not one that would be readily picked up by the amateur astronomy crowd. But, i agree that the large number of clearly bogus accounts makes it hard to determine if any account is believable.
On a side note, cellphones are the most convincing evidence of alien visitation--surely this is alien technology (since humans are far too stupid to have invented it), and the aliens are using this technology to brainwash and imprison us all! :)

[Tony]

Phil's comment about amateur astronomers is spot on. Just after Heide Stefanyshyn-Piper lost her toolbag working on the international space station Kevin Fetter managed to get a video of the toolbag

http://spaceweather.com/swpod2008/23nov08/33442.wmv?PHPSESSID=a0mku047eunmikouh7rod06rf7

If amateur astronomers can spot items this small, then alien space ships should be easy to spot.

[Myk]

@Alan Haggard:

What! Phil failed to approve your comments within a four hour time period! Such behaviour is totally unacceptable! All bloggers should be forced to either have entirely unmoderated comment systems, or alternatively to spend twenty-four hours a day watching their blogs for new comments to avoid any delays in allowing other people's remarks from appearing on the pages they are paying for!

[BloggerT]

Of course some of these "sightings" are actually military craft. For example the stealth fighters and bombers were flying long before the public knew about them. Not to mention test flights on experimental craft that never get shown to the public. I agree that life probably exists out there. But as for the whole UFO bit I too want some solid proof.

[luke]

if it talked about the aliens in the bible the only monster it talked about is the loch ness monster and god was going to kill itwith his powerful sword who knows mabye the dinosaurs are half alien!!!!!!if you go on www.youtube.com it has so many ufo things. and there is a Unidentified Flying Human aka UFH

[Gayle]

In MY opinion,people who call themselves"skepitcs" are afraid that what they are skeptical of just MAY be a reality.No one wants to think "OMG there might really be BIG crafts with strange little people on them who could destroy this Earth IF they wanted to.
I believe in many things,ghost,spirits,UFO's,God,I'm pretty sure Santa and the Easter Bunny are not real but you just never know do you?
Your entitled to believe in what you want to but don't try to encourage me or kill YOURSELF trying to prove things DON'T exist.
On that note,have a wonderfful day,PEACE OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gayle

[anuj kumar]

i just want to say that some one is waiting for us okaa they may be advance from us and may be we are advance from them in those stages there is third stage between these two and it is impossible to achieve one stage from lower to heigher so dont only wait for them we should try to find them coz they are more igorelly waitiing for us :D:D:D:D
anuj

[Noleafclover]

There is no way that we;ve been visited, EVERY one has a cell phone camera these days, we'd be seeing live video footage all day long. Nope, its all just fantasy.

[Rick Kwitkoski]

Interesting article and comments.
I once saw a UFO. Dusk was turning into darkness but a glow in the west above the hills across the lake from me gave a bit of light. A yellow-orange light appeared to the south and slowly moved to the west. I could not tell its distance so I had nothing to gauge its size. However, as it moved further west I waited to see if it would go behind the hills above the lake or come in front of them. That would tell me its relative distance and size, and speed. It came in front of the hills so I knew it was very much smaller than a craft that might contain beings. Eventually it went down to surface of the lake fairly close to me and it looked like it shot off very swiftly it a streak of light. In my mind I determined what it was.
The next day the local newspaper had a report of three elderly non-drinking people seeing the same thing and reporting a UFO. They described exactly what I had seen but couldn't resolve it within their personal framework. I called the newspaper and described what I saw and my explanation for it. The next issue of the newspaper showed their attempt (with a multiple exposure picture) at re-creating the UFO. A light plastic bag with birthday candles in egg carton cups underneath creates a good hot-air balloon that at a distance of a couple hundred metres and at night could be taken to be many things. The streak of light? Small wavelets on the water surface caught the light of the candles just at the right point and reflected the light along a wave crest - LOOKING like a streak of light as the whole thing was extinguished.
The vast majority of UFO sighting are easily explained by common means. Don't just look, OBSERVE and UNDERSTAND!

[baryogenesis]

I've read nearly all that has been published on UFO's from the late 40's through the mid-90's.It became infuriating when Others didn't read the literature and believe what witnesses and UFO enthusiasts claim these witnesses saw. What made me stop believing? The MIB of course. They threatened to kill my cat. Oh yeah, and the one person who I really trusted as a credible witness turned out to be mad. I think people must get high on gov't conspiracy theories.

[HooferDoofer]

Alan Haggard, your comments are actually on Phil Plait's blog right now, exactly as you pasted them here. There's a big difference between "censored" and "delayed a bit by a spam filter". When you post seven lengthy comments in the space of an hour, don't be surprised when the anti-spam script flags them for moderation.

[Jim Shaver]

"Two prime examples would be traversible wormholes (or Einstein-Rosenbridges) and of course the Alcubierre Warp Drive. Look them up, you just might learn something. Or, if you’re too lazy or stubborn to do so..."

Just might learn something?! Lazy?! Stubborn?! What a bunch of baloney. Sounds like someone doesn't know the difference between science fiction and, well, reality.

Could wormhole space travel be a possible feat of a super-advanced alien civilization? The best physicists on Earth could not come to a consensus on an affirmative answer, but apparently the very fact that some smart people think about these types of things is proof enough for some other people that every unexplained light in the sky is an alien vessel (and one that manages to elude humantiy in every way except for being seen often by true believers).

Look, an alien Earth visitation would be the single most profound event in human history. So all Phil is saying is this: If you want to make the biggest claim ever, have some darn decent evidence first! Only with solid evidence will we true scientists believe, and then we'll even apologize and everything.

[SRS]

Good points. Strong case...not just for no-aliens: you make a strong case for learning about the sky.

[Alan Haggard]

As I stated prior, my following comments had been CENSORED on Phil Plait's blog, which doesn't lend him much credibility as being "unbiased", and in turn only lends credence to those who see a blatant and unnecessary coverup by NASA & the US Military, for reasons I mentioned below.

[Alan Haggard]

# Alan Haggard Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
November 25th, 2008 at 6:48 pm

In regards to the hurtle of overcoming distances involved with interstellar travel, the indelible cosmic speed limit of 186,000 miles per seconds, one has to look towards alternate means of propulsion. Two prime examples would be traversible wormholes (or Einstein-Rosenbridges) and of course the Alcubierre Warp Drive. Look them up, you just might learn something. Or, if you’re too lazy or stubborn to do so, NASA has courteously summarized the aforementioned means of interstellar or FTL (faster-than-light) propulsion, which can be found here:

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/glenn/technology/warp/ideachev.html

[Alan Haggard]

# Alan Haggard Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
November 25th, 2008 at 6:18 pm

It should also be noted that NASA has witnessed UFO’s on various occasions. If you listen to recordings of NASA transmissions regarding UFO’s, you’ll hear astronauts accidentally mention a “craft” or “bogey” before quickly being told to switch to an encrypted channel.

[Alan Haggard]

# Alan Haggard Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
November 25th, 2008 at 6:16 pm

When you take this information into account, one has to ask yourself: Why would the US military (as well others) deny the existence non-terrestrial UFO’s? The answer is simple. It all comes down to being an issue of national security. Our military (as well as others) do not want your average citizen to know there are craft possessing technologically superior to our own that are capable of violating our airspace at will. There was a time when this information may have caused mass panic of hysteria, another reason this information has been withheld, in addition to the theological implications such information would have and the reluctance of world leaders (who are generally very religious) to alter the public’s world view and to potentially put their own systems of belief into question.

[Alan Haggard]

Unfortunately, Mr. Plait decided to censor my comments on his blog simply because I do not fully support his views. The censored comments I wrote are as follows:

# Alan Haggard Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
November 25th, 2008 at 6:08 pm

You’re correct about a few things. The universe is almost unfathomably vast, containing numerous galaxies, stars, and exoplanets. It would be unlikely that even a small fraction of these exoplanets did not contain life, in one form or another. As far as UFO’s are concerned, I agree with the first portion of your commentary. Most UFO sightings can be attributed to misidentifications of natural or man-made phenomena. However, you have to take into account the small percentage of legitimate cases in which you have multiple eyewitnesses from different vantage points, cooberating video and/or photographic evidence, and in some cases, even radar cross section recordings that all point to one conclusion: That being, a majority of UFO cases are either hoaxes or misidentifications. However a small percentage cannot be discredited nor attributed to any natural or man-made phenomena AND often exhibit craft of unknown origin flying at speeds we cannot yet attain and performing maneuvers which are physically “impossible” given our current state of technology (i.e. instant acceleration from a hovering stance to tens of thousands of miles per hour as well as performing right angle maneuvers at these speeds). Some people argue these sightings are nothing more than overactive imaginations reacting to Hollywood’s portrayal of the UFO phenomena, which does not make sense considering these sightings have been occurring for hundreds (if not thousands) of years. There have been reports of massive “cigar shaped” metallic craft since the early 1800’s, a type of craft which is not uncommonly reported and even filmed to this day.

[Kenneth V an Der Slyus]

as the best that I can, I'm an ameteur weather scientist along with an interest in seismic activeity, also I'm also Bible based and am unable to deny what history tells me. If,if,if alien life exists, The Most High knows.