Are You A Believer?

November 20, 2008

I just hopped off an online interview with a director from MUFON -- the Mutual UFO Network -- and felt the need to say something about it.

Our interview, by the way, regards a mini-site I'm building for a Discovery Channel show called "UFOs Over Earth". As of right now the schedule is:

- The Bucks County Flap - Nov. 24 (Mon.) at 9:00 pm ET.
Re-runs: Dec. 13 (Sat.) at 10:00 pm ET and 2:00am ET

- Mass Sightings in Mexico - Nov. 24 (Mon.) at 10:00 pm ET

- The Fayetteville Incident - Re-runs: Dec. 13 (Sat.) at 9:00 pm ET and 1:00am ET)

TV schedules are fickle, however, so for the most up-to-date one click this here link.

At any rate, back to the chat...

It was one of those conversations you walk away from wondering "what just happened?" Was I adequately inquisitive? Skeptical? Reasonable?

Y'all will be the ultimate judges, but do know that I didn't make it easy on my source.

I admitted I was skeptical. Based on the text, photographs, video and storytelling I have absorbed over the years, I've become increasingly doubtful of the existence of an alien race going out of its way to visit our planet -- with just a few crummy images to show for themselves.

Others will salivate to disagree with me. I promise to be a good listener and let you tell me about this radar blip or this weird-looking image or "Roswell, for chrissakes, what about ROSWELL?!"

*sigh*

Trust me, I would love to think that aliens (or, some would say, super-evolved time-traveling humans) found the Earth a cool enough place to scope out. As with any discussion about aliens we have to summon Francis "Franky" Drake.

Check.

I actually do respect Drake immensely for his work on pondering the occurrence of smart aliens civilizations, but you have to admit there's a lot of work to do on the equation itself. (XKCD author Randall Munroe clearly doesn't buy any of it, though.)

Equations aside: 100 billion galaxies with about 100 billion stars apiece offers plenty of chances for intelligent life to exist elsewhere in the universe.

Aka, I'm compelled to think intelligent alien life is statistically inevitable.

Aka, I just might believe.

However:

• Would their existence line up with our own in time?
  Stars die on billion-year timescales and extinctions happen on million-year timescales. The chances for high-fiving an alien aren't too good.


• If we did line up in the cosmic scheme of things, how would "they" know about us?
  We've only been broadcasting radio transmissions for about 100 years, and even those signals today are depressingly weak -- and they get exponentially weaker the farther away you are. So realistically a visit would only be because they noticed life-forming temperatures and compounds in our atmosphere from ___ light-years away.


• Assuming the above, would it even be possible for them to visit?
  Even going at the speed of light, it would be a mighty big detour from home base. Enjoy lots of deadly cosmic radiation en route.


• ...before we all wiped ourselves off of the planet?
  As evidence shows, we are digging a mighty fine hole for ourselves.


• If they did visit, part 1: Why wouldn't they attempt direct contact?
  Wouldn't you make the most of your trip by saying "what's up humans!?" when you arrived?


• If they did visit, part 2: Shouldn't we all be dead by now?
  Earths are rare. I'd want a backup for my super-advanced alien civilization to hang onto.

Really. Think about the above before you try to address any shred of potential evidence for the existence of alien UFOs visiting our humble planet.

I can't tell you what to think. But approach the subject logically and consider our isolation as a planet, then I think we just might find ourselves on the same page.

Photos: CIA; XKCD.com

Comments

[anita garcia/ortiz]

i belived in ufo since i was a little girl and still do

[John Creel]

With regards to it being possible for aliens to visit us, it doesn't seem likely based on our current scientific knowledge. However, as it has been pointed out many times before, sufficiently advanced aliens may have overcome the problems we see with space travel. I think a more serious issue is the belief that groups like SETI have, that is we may be able to contact aliens and then they'll want to be our friends. Well, what if we cause them to notice us but they aren't very friendly? Now let's assume this is the case AND they have the technology to get here. We may just find ourselves in a very nasty situation that we probably wouldn't be able to get out of!