A tedious final public meeting of the board reviewing the
country’s human space program concluded with a sobering assessment of the
future, at least for those wishing to see American flags on other bodies in the
solar system. To put it bluntly: It ain’t gonna happen in our lifetimes without
a big boost in NASA’s budget.
That’s not to say there’s not a silver lining, a couple actually.
First off, we’re likely to make our international partners very happy because
the only program that looks robust and viable for the foreseeable future is the
International Space Station. For the most part, the Human Space Flight Review
panel seems to favor extending its planned lifetime to at least 2020.
It’s a
logical choice considering that the complex isn’t even finished yet and
currently is on the books for only five years of operating funds beyond its 2010
completion date. That’s less time than NASA has kept the rovers Spirit and
Opportunity plucking around on Mars.
The space station will have consumed somewhere in the neighborhood of
$100 billion by the time it’s finished, so it seems only prudent to try to get
some return on the investment.
NASA, however, would like to move beyond operations 200
miles above Earth and has set its sights on the moon and Mars. The blueprint
it’s been working toward had its legs cut out from under it, financially
speaking, and it’s over.
“We can’t do this program in this budget,” board member
Sally Ride told her colleagues on the Human Space Flight Review panel, which
wrapped up what was expected to be its final public meeting in Washington D.C.
on Wednesday. “This budget is simply not friendly to exploration.”
About $3 billion a year would be needed to get the exploration
initiative back on track, though the earliest a return to the moon could occur
is probably in the mid-2020s, rather than 2020, the agency’s initial goal.
The cards left on the table, however, offer a new path into
space, one that might be well-tread by NASA, but is brand new to the rest of
us. By extending the space station, the government can create a commercial market
for rides to space. Once the space shuttles are retired, NASA will need a way
to transport its astronauts and the only option now is to buy rides from the
Russian government for close to $50 million a seat.
Buying rides commercially not only could create a more
robust space station program, it could open travel options for tourism and other
orbital expeditions.
It’d be a tough pill for NASA to swallow, one that has stymied
almost every government bureaucracy, as it would require the agency to do the
unthinkable: get smaller. Welcome to the recession, NASA.
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