What You Don't Know CAN Kill You

September 09, 2008

Twenty-plus years of covering the space program and I come to learn that it's not the awe-striking power of the explosion (hopefully controlled) known as the liftoff that poses the chief danger to shuttle astronauts --
despite what we witnessed when Challenger fell from the sky in 1986.

It’s not even the supersonic, plasma-churning, free-fall through the atmosphere preceding a shuttle’s return to Earth that is the top risk -- despite what we witnessed when Columbia fell from the sky in 2003.
I (belatedly) come to learn that it is the virtually invisible, silent crush of space junk whirling around Earth that’s most likely to end it for a shuttle crew. It’s just that NASA didn’t know it, until a few years ago.

The Columbia investigation turned up some interesting facts about the shuttle, such as that its tougher-than-steel carbon composite wing panels could become as fragile as glass. NASA learned that not only did a wing panel shatter under the force of a briefcase-sized chunk of fly-away foam insulation, sealing the Columbia crew’s fate; tests and analysis later showed the panels wouldn’t put up much resistance if they encountered any of the shards of debris zooming around the planet at 17,500 mph.

For a shuttle to fly as high as the Hubble telescope’s orbit -- roughly 350 miles above the planet -- there’s a 1:185 chance that an orbital debris impact will trigger a catastrophic accident, says the shuttle program manager John Shannon. It’s safer at the space station, which has less debris in its 210-mile high orbital perch. Plus the station can shield the most vulnerable parts a visiting shuttle.

Anything riskier than 1:200 automatically gets bumped to the next pay grade at NASA, so look for a nice long discussion of relative risk as shuttle Atlantis nears its Oct. 10 launch date. The shuttle and seven astronauts are being dispatched on a fifth and final servicing mission to the beloved Hubble.

Somehow, I doubt that the facts in this case will make the launch any less stressful to watch.

(Caption: Challenger explosion -- Not the most likely doomsday scenario anymore. Credit: NASA)

Comments

[Dave Mosher]

Every time I saw the shuttle launch, I found it extremely stressful -- wire-like filing of stories aside. I thought: "my god, there are seven people strapped to that 500,000 gallon bomb with two more bombs strapped to it. And I'm about to see the fuse lit."

And your post of course touches on the second order of stress -- flying into a diffuse cloud of mini-bullets.

The third stress, of course, is the trouble with landing a 100-ton brick.

[Adam G.]

Every time an astronaut has to venture out for a space walk I pray he or she doesn't get hit by any debris. Just a speck of something would be like a bullet.

[sal]

Breaking News: Spaceflight is dangerous. Film at 11.

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