NASA's Plan B -- NOT

July 21, 2008

I noted a news story this weekend, first reported in a Japanese newspaper, that NASA was looking at Japan’s new H-2 Transfer Vehicle to haul cargo to the space station. Nothing new … NASA has said repeatedly that after the shuttle is retired the U.S. will have to depend on its partners to ferry crew and supplies to the outpost -- until and unless a commercial company was able to provide the service.

But the issue became blog-worthy, IMHO, when NASA put out a denial, which includes the following:

“NASA is committed to domestic commercial cargo resupply to the space station and does not plan to procure cargo delivery services from Japan … NASA has chosen to depend on commercial resupply of cargo
delivery to the station.”

Sounds like a plan, no? 'Course the agency’s press office failed to mention that it’s wishful thinking at this point: Currently there are no companies in the U.S. with cargo transport services to the space station. So what’s the harm in exploring other options in case the market fails to materialize? Hello, NASA? Who rocked your boat this morning?

Comments

[Dave Mosher]

NASA amazes me. And this post reminds me of one of your previous entries: http://blogs.discovery.com/news_space/2008/06/lets-steal-the.html

[PirateNamedNeo]

future seems to be lagging by sci-fi standards, was the discovery in 2001 a space odyssey made on the earth, were the starships of star trek build on earth? follow where I am going with this? look around, cell phone, looks like a comunicator, space shuttle (shuttle craft) check my blog NASA has been lagging for some time now

[Michael Mealling]

The harm in looking is that investors in the COTS companies as well as the other non-COTS respondents have repeatedly pointed out that NASA is a very fickle customer and that it never does what it says it will do. That's one of the reasons RpK couldn't get funding. So if NASA says its out looking at alternatives when it has already committed publicly and privately to investors that it will adhere to COTS commitments, it runs the very great risk of deep-sixing some poor company with naturally skeptical investors.

[DisappointedReader]

Once again, I am disappointed at the superficial nature of the reporting and comments. Anyone who knows government understands there's what is real and there's what can be said. It's not NASA's fault. NASA is a part of the Executive Branch of the federal government.

NASA has been directed that COTS will solve all ills by OMB. Anyone with half a brain and no financial interest in COTS knows it isn't likely to work. However, the agency has been ordered to rely on COTS. So, that's what NASA does -- salutes and works to carry out its White House orders to the best of its ability.

No one bothers to dig deeper to find the real story. It is much easier to throw rocks and grab the low-hanging fruit!

If (when) COTS fails, NASA still has to supply ISS. However, NASA cannot buck the White House, industry, congressional members with stakes in the COTS outcome, and the overall current administration direction that COTS will be the answer.

NASA is caught between a rock and hard case at OMB.

So, NASA will have to say that it's relying on COTS. The commercial guys developing COTS will over-sell their success. Yet, NASA knows it has to have alternatives lined up when COTS fails. BUT THE AGENCY CANNOT TALK ABOUT IT.

If you want to exercise your wit, target that intellect at the people who are creating the problem and exaggerating their chances at success.

[irene]

Thanks for the feedback. re: "People" who are creating the problem and exaggerating their chances at success - And who might them be, in your humble opinion?

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