Maybe we shouldn't go after that colossal, transformational Smart Grid infrastructure project. Looking at the last big one, Eisenhower's National System of Interstate and Defense Highways, it cost a lot more and took much longer than anticipated. In 1956, the plan was for federal government to seed the "self-liquidating" effort with $25 billion, so that 43,000 miles of interstate could be created in 12 years (the self-liquidating part was to come from increased gas taxes). Well, the Feds ended up dumping $114 billion into the project over 35 years. A huge miscalculation. A 456 percent budget overrun.
Ike's vision, his drive to see this massive highway undertaking through, was informed by his participation as a lieutenant colonel in a 1919 army convoy to service-test military vehicles on our nation's roads, from D.C. to San Francisco. The snail-paced journey took 62 days (58 miles a day), claiming nine of the seventy-three vehicles used, as well as twenty-one soldier casualties. The dismal convoy experience was contrasted in Ike's mind by the American army's swift movement on the German autobahn in World War II. From these juxtaposed experiences, Eisenhower knew in his bones the potential of a well -built, end-to-end national highway system.
In the end it cost a lot more than Ike thought it would. But the huge miscalculation, the budget overrun that brought us the interstate highway system, is buried by the inestimable contribution to American productivity and prosperity those highways have delivered year over year since. So while the Smart Grid may have a big price tag, and it may get even bigger than we now envision, the payoff offers much. It will leverage the capital and innovation of the free market. It will deregulate and place in the free market what to date have been the monopolies of the utilities. We will use electricity more efficiently and intelligently. We can tailor electricity to our needs, as well as to the limitations of the grid. The stage will be set to use electricity to power vehicles. Our grid will be more resilient and resistent to terrorist attacks and natural disasters. And as with other transformational efforts (like the internet) it will bring things we haven't even considered yet (like the internet's ability to track goods and mail, YouTube, Skype).
The Smart Grid could bring untold productivity and prosperity to future generations, much as the Eisenhower's visionary highways brought them to us.
Photo: courtesy of the Dwight D. Eisenhower Presidential Library & Museum
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