El Niño is coming back

by John D. Cox | June 09, 2009

Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are showing signs that an old acquaintance is about to pay a new visit.  He will rearrange the meteorological furniture across the planet and probably outstay his welcome.  According to the Climate Prediction Center, it looks like El Niño is coming back.

Sea surface temperatures have warmed across the Pacific's midsection during the Spring, and more importantly, a large pulse of subsurface warmth has propagated from west to east. Click on the image of this surface warmth -- the key El Niño region is to the right of the International Dateline at 180 degrees longitude -- and watch the heat below the surface move across the ocean this spring from the western Pacific off southern Asia to the eastern Pacific off South America.

"These surface and subsurface oceanic anomalies typically precede the development of El Niño," the climate center observed in its monthly discussion of conditions in the region.

While most, but not all, models forecast the development of an El Niño this summer, forecasting these events is still a work in progress.  The more compelling evidence comes from the observed data, such as this time diagram showing upper ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific becoming anomalously warm this Spring.

El Niño conditions have a variety of impacts around the globe, although every event is different. Typically, upper-level westerly winds intensify, a circumstance that could suppress the development of some Atlantic hurricanes this summer.  During winter, the North Pacific jetstream flattens its trajectory and moves farther south, which usually brings more warm winter storms across Southern California and Southeastern US.  The Pacific Northwest often experiences warmer and drier winters.

-John D. Cox
IMAGES: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Comments

[aaron miles]

This might be caused by Global cooling, look out. It is coming soon. I mean warming I still havent been brain washed correctly.

[Kevin]

Wait, so is it global warming? Or global cooling? Can someone please tell me what to think, I can't do it on my own. It's not like the fact that this is a returning, epoch-seasonal phenomenon could possibly mean that both of those things are fake and propogandized in the long-run, so someone, please tell me how to think. I need a cause to throw my money at. lol

[dave christensen]

This makes me want to run my air conditioner on high and open all the windows. Maybe that will be the equalizer.

[midtoad]

El Niño is a (sometimes large) short-term fluctuation in temperatures in a region of the globe, and may have nothing to with the slow, small, bu continued increase in global mean temperatures over decades that we call 'global warming'. With your skewed logic, you might as well start claiming that because it got cold last night, there's no global warming. But then, the daytime heat proves global warming, doesn't it?

[timbob]

read the art of war.create a disaster and then be the answer to its solution.thats the way to control the ignorant masses.

[Daniel]

Great. After 12 years of heat and drought and an extraordinary 3 years in a row of a positive Indian Ocean dipole just about to break, here comes El Nino again, to bring us here in SE Australia an even hotter, drier spring and summer than last year, yet again.
Last summer, records were smashed as the mercury climbed to 117F-47C, dread to think then what this summer will bring with a new El Nino in the works.
Still think global warming is all propaganda and brainwashing? Easy to do if it's not in your face. Just come visit Melbourne Australia and take a look at the dried up water reservoirs and the dying river systems or the weekly broken weather records if you want some proof.

[Jonathan]

You people dismissing global warming and joking about it (even worse) are clearly ignorant. Don't wait for someone to tell you what to think: DO THE RESEARCH ON YOUR OWN. Read a book. There's tons of scientific research about it. Get off your butts. It's a very serious issue, consiering the entire planet is in the balance if we don't do anything about it. Stop being an idiot and actually take an interest in the world around you. Don't listen to Fox News and their propaganda, do your own research and decide for yourself.

I guarantee anyone who knows anything about science believes. By poking fun at such a serious issue, you're only announcing your own stupidity. It's happening in Australia right now (like the previous poster said), for instance. Research what accelerated the Darfur genocide. Do us ALL a favor and stop living under a rock!

[Jonathan]

"read the art of war.create a disaster and then be the answer to its solution.thats the way to control the ignorant masses."

Are you serious? Relating Sun Tsu to global warming? Absurd. As if millions of people haven't read the Art of War anyway. Instead of trying to sound intellectual by quoting ancient Eastern texts, why don't you pick up a book on physics and figure out what happens to the atmosphere when your car burns gasoline? Hint: It doesn't just disappear, Confucius.

[Tufik Habib]

How strange it is that, still, some people think global warming is a myth. Every single summer since 1990 has been hotter. All major scientific bodies concur that there is a global warming occurring and we are the major cause. Let's invest our time in trying not to make the current situation worse.

[magnoliasouth]

Actually I find it surprising that people are still actually buying into the global warming myth. I mean come on! Do the real research.

It's nothing but Mother Earth's natural cycle and it changes all the time. Sure, tell the people during the last ice age that the cooling was due to their mistakes.

The earth goes through natural changes and sure it is getting warmer, but there is nothing we mere humans can do nor is it our fault.

Sometimes, things just happen. It's time people learn to accept that instead of being alarmists.

[desertgirl]

I do believe in global warming, but I also believe it is part of a cycle that repeats with history and not necessarily caused or controlable by anything we mere humans do. BUT - we can still all do our share to take care of this place we call home. Learn to live a more efficient, clean lifestyle. BUT - do the research on the long term disposal of batteries or exactly how much more power is consumed to produce alternative fuels. I think a lot of propaganda is being used as scare tactics to make people buy into a lot of scams fueled by mis-information. Learn to do your own research and make your own fact based decisions.

[Scottie]

This is really bad for areas such as Los, Angeles. We may even get a hurricane out of this due to the now warming waters.

[bookbuck]

You alarmists... I have read a book or two. Am an engineer have been for a long time and I think the earth maybe be warming (maybe) but I do not think it is man made. Too much evidence from previous climate shifts that man has nothing to do with any change. This is nothing but a political question it has even become hereitical to doubt, in much the same way the politics of old denied a sun at the center of the universe, or a world that was not flat; and destroyed those whose thinking did not match their own.

[HeadInTheSand]

bookbuck - great analogy!

The politicians of old took the position that the sun was the center of the universe and that the world was flat. The science supported the propositions that the sun is not the center of the universe and the world is a sphere.

Today, politicians deny the existence of global warming; the science supports it. The existence of evidence that global temperatures have historical variations does not undermine the general consensus in the scientific community that human-induced global climate change has occurred.

I'm sure the politicians are right this time!

[Alarmist]

Global warming or not, are we forgetting all of the other serious impacts caused by our energy usage habits? Smog, Acid Rain, Dependency on foreign oil, Hummer's H3?

Find a cleaner energy source and you cure a lot more than the prospects of global warming.

[Jonathan]

bookbuck:
Although someone else already pointed out the obvious contradiction in your post, let's make sure you get it. The Earth was placed at the center of the universe because of religious conservatives who didn't want to refute the Bible (they even banned the reading of Copernicus' discovery of a heliocentric solar system). Science proved otherwise. Now, science proves global warming is happening, and yet you're using the same argument to deny it. See the irony?
The Earth has cycles indeed, but when you look at the Keeling Curve, how can you not make the connection between human-produced greenhouse emissions and the doubling of carbon in the atmosphere since around the time humans starting using coal? It's not coincidence; all of that excess carbon in the air because of HUMANS is trapping in the sun's rays in our atmosphere. It's simple science they teach you in high school. Burning all of that fuel (not just in cars, but total) is like trapping ourselves in a self-made microwave. And add the fact that we cut down so many trees (which eat up the excess carbon), and you've got a real problem.
The Earth has its cycles, but don't fool yourselves: there is little doubt in the scientific community that global warming is mostly man-made and has been taking place since the time of coal, when there were less than a billion people. It's just that we now have 6.5 billion people and growing and it's only going to make the problem get worse.

[John]

Actually, if any of you "smarties" such as aaron miles and Kevin knew anything, evidence points to this event happening at least for the past 300 years. There's also some thought it may go back as far as the holocene. Have you two geniuses actually read anything about this, or are you putting your fingers to the keyboard in some sad attempt to look like a "rebel" who "thinks for himself". Laughable.

Hey Bookbuck: Being an engineer means nothing, it just means you think your creds make you some how more "knowledgeable" about this than other people. I'll listen to the climate scientists, not some engineer who has "read a book or two" and decided he knows better. LOL.

[alan]

Anthropogenic global warming is NOT a consensus. There are plenty of knowledgeable scientists who do not support it, scientists who have done their homework, scientists who are not financially motivated to come to any preset conclusion.

But I did research on my own and so far I have not found any evidence that conclusively shows that an increase in CO2 causes global warming. On the contrary, all evidence I find shows the opposite: warming causes increased levels of CO2.

If anyone can show me something which proves that CO2 causes an increase in temperature, I am glad to read it. Until then I will believe what I have been able to find for myself.

If you are looking for a place to start your research, try http://www.middlebury.net/op-ed/global-warming-01.html . From there it's up to you.

[Global Assult On Rational Thought]

Every couple of decades it seems like these "scientists" do a 180 on what sort of problems human beings are creating. The most recent, "Man Made Global Warming", is nothing short of a religion. There's evidence to support it and evidence to deny it, but just like any other religion, it can not be proven. You either believe in it or you do not.

From the 70's (see link)
"Man, too, may be somewhat responsible for the cooling trend. The University of Wisconsin's Reid A. Bryson and other climatologists suggest that dust and other particles released into the atmosphere as a result of farming and fuel burning may be blocking more and more sunlight from reaching and heating the surface of the earth."
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html

[Doubleplusgood]

Yes the Earth has been through warming cycles in the past. BUT never has the warming happened so rapidly and never has there been so much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Its not a coincidence.

In Western Canada we have an infestation of pine beetles that is decimating huge areas of forrest because its no longer cold enough in the winter to kill the beetles so their populations have exploded.

There are hundreds of cases of ecosystems and climate cycles that are being affected by these slow but steady temperature increases.

And just from my own experience. Countries around the Mediteranean are seeing temperatures over 40 degrees in the summers. I remember 15 years ago when I would visit family in Lebanon temperatures wouldn't rise above 35 degrees in the summer. Now they go over 40 regularly. Every year it seems to get worse.

I don't understand how people can deny that these effects are man made. If it was natural then these changes would take MUCH longer to occur. You cannot add billions of tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and think that it has NO effect at all. Its stands to reason that there would be an effect.

There is however an phenomenon called "global dimming" which is causing less and less sunlight to strike the Earth's surface. This is due to the particulate polution in the atmosphere and has actually spared us from the full effects of global warming. Volcanic eruptions also have the same effect. However the cooling effect of the dimming is not enough to counter global warming.

[alan]

@Doubleplusgood: If you have any evidence you can point me towards to support your views, specifically links or books, then I would be happy to read them.

Otherwise, all you have put forth is anecdotal and speculative. I, for one, don't want to decide this issue without something more concrete.

In the meantime, I would urge you to at least skim the article I linked above, which I will link again below.

I also want to point out that climate change in itself is not really what is being debated here so much as man-made climate change, specifically man-made global warming via carbon dioxide.

Again, all the hard evidence that I can find shows that increased levels of CO2 happen *after* an increase in temperature. If that is the case like the evidence suggests, then CO2 cannot cause the increase in temperature any more than you could cause something to happen last year by doing something right now.

http://www.middlebury.net/op-ed/global-warming-01.html

[Aaron S.]

alan:

I looked over your link, and while I don't have the expertise to comment on his data, his writing style leaves a little to be desired. Repeatedly he uses tactics which are normally only used when trying to convince a lay audience of an erroneous argument, for instance stating (in bold) that 100 climatologists signed a paper arguing that global warming is not caused by humans (a bit weaselly because while 100 sounds like a lot, when it's out of a population of tens of thousands, it means nothing), using complex mathematics (which virtually no readers will understand and will assume, possibly incorrectly, that they're valid), as well as leading us to believe that the human contribution of CO2 is too small to make a difference, when in fact effects from CO2 are visible even in minuscule amounts. To give a link backing that up:

http://climateprogress.org/2009/02/23/mit-doubles-global-warming-projections/

I think you also asked for a link supporting the theory that CO2 raises global temperature, not vice-versa. Here's one:

http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2008/09/which-came-first-the-carbon-dioxide-or-the-heat.ars

[Jonathan]

CO2 from heat? Are you kidding?

The entire reason the last ice age ended was because of an increase in methane, which is a very potent greenhouse gas, much more than carbon. Do you see why adding more carbon could do something similar? But where is the extra carbon coming from? Humans, my friend.

Nearly all of the arguments on that link provided to refute man-made global warming is in err with general modern science. It uses many of the same tactics a lot of the "hoax" camp uses regularly. Don't be fooled, Alan.

CO2 is a lot like other greenhouse gases. The Earth itself has had 5 events happen that increased these gases and wiped out about 95-99% of all life at the time of its happening. And each time that happens, the atmosphere resets itself.

For instance, when the dinosaurs developed, there was more oxygen in the atmosphere leading to bigger animals. Then they were wiped out. Once oxygen became plentiful again, mammals grew large at the same time (whales, mammoths, bison, giant sloths). The atmosphere is a unique balance of gases, and shifting it in favor of greenhouse gases affects how much sunlight is trapped in it, leading to increased heat. So CO2 CAUSES heat, not vice versa. How does heat MAKE CO2?

Global dimming is also a factor in the sun hitting the earth. For instance, the 2 days the U.S. air traffic was grounded after 9/11, average temperatures rose significantly across the country because there wasn't any jet-smog to keep us cool. So in a way, our own stupidity has been mitigating the effects of global warming for years.

Arguing against man-made global warming is just erroneous. Sorry to inform you doubters. If you really know science on a physics, chemistry, and biological level, then analyze earth history, it will all point you in the same direction: overpopulation of humans and the use of inefficient technology is altering the atmosphere and we're on a crash course for much worse problems in the future.

[Jay]

"For instance, the 2 days the U.S. air traffic was grounded after 9/11, average temperatures rose significantly across the country because there wasn't any jet-smog to keep us cool."

Jonathan, I find that very hard to believe, and I think that impossible to conclude to be a cause from direct observation. I don't see that there would be enough surface area of North America that would be daily covered by jet smog or its related con-trails to dim the temperature .05 Centegrade. Correlation does not imply causation. Don't confuse casual oberservation with science. Otherwise, I'd say I agree with your sentiments.

[alan]

@Jonathan: Please provide sources for your claims.

@Aaron S.: I read both links you posted, thank you for taking me seriously.

The first link was written by ten climatologists and basically says that if we don't severely curtail the amount of CO2 being released by burning coal that CO2 levels will rise and that this will negatively impact the earth and our ability to live on it. What I did not see was proof that catastrophe will certainly occur if humans continue to emit CO2 at present rates. If you could point out where it explains that, I would be grateful.

The second link was posted to refute the idea that increased CO2 lags behind increased temperatures, but the article did not do that. In fact, it supported that idea. The comments that follow the article should help to alleviate this confusion.

@Aaron S. and Jonathan: You both said that the article I linked contains suspicious arguments and imply that it therefore must be wrong in its entirety. It is obvious that after coming to this conclusion neither of you gave it a fair chance and didn't read much of it, and so your reasons for refuting everything it says amount to a claim that since you don't like the way some of it was written, all of it is false. As an earnest truth-seeker in this matter I am very willing to read and understand any material you provide me and I would likewise urge you to carefully consider all evidence.